FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

 Tenken-Sen- 1.05411

 Kijun-Sen- 1.05241

EURUSD showed a minor gap down opening amid Middle East geopolitical tension. It hit a high of 1.05993 yesterday and is currently trading around 1.05535.

Israel declares war against Palestine as intense fighting continues in major areas after the Hamas surprise attack by Palestine militants Hamas. According to NBC News, at least 700 Israelis have been killed and 313 Palestinian deaths reported by Palestinian Health Ministry.

The US economy has added 336000 jobs in Sep, compared to a forecast of 170000. The unemployment rate surged to 3.8% vs. an estimated 3.70%.

Major economic data for the week

Oct 11th, 2023, US PPI (12:30 pm GMT)

Oct 12th, 2023, US CPI (12:30 pm GMT)

Oct 13th Prelim UoM consumer sentiments (2 pm GMT)

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov decreased to 78.30% from 81.70% a day ago.

 The US 10-year yield surged sharply after upbeat US Non-farm payroll data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -28% from -75%.

The pair trades above short-term 21 EMA,  55 EMA, and below long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any break below 1.0480 confirms further bearishness. A decline to 1.0400/1.0340  is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0620, and any breach above targets is 1.0660/1.0700.

   Indicator (4-hour chart)

   CCI – Bullish

  Directional movement index – Neutral

It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0548-550 with SL around 1.0600 for a TP of 1.0400.