• NZD/USD edged lower on Wednesday as kiwi dollar remained under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
• Markets are pricing in a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, while analysts expect the Fed to deliver the rate hike to preserve its credibility in fighting inflation
• On the data front, New Zealand's seasonally adjusted current account balance widened by $857 million to a deficit of $4.6 billion in the December 2025 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.
• Oil prices remain elevated amid Middle East supply concerns. Saudi Arabia suspended some oil loadings after attacks disrupted infrastructure, while Brent had risen sharply in the previous session.
• RBNZ Assistant Governor Angus McGregor is due to speak Thursday, providing a potential domestic policy catalyst for the kiwi.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5828(50%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5878 (SMA 20)
• Support is seen at 0.5735(38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5706 (Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5760 with stop loss of 0.5830 and target price of 0.5700
