• USD/CAD gained some ground on Friday as the Canadian dollar weakened after domestic data showed a surprise drop in employment, prompting investors to scale back expectations for Bank of Canada rate hikes this year.
• Canada’s unemployment rate climbed to a six-month high of 6.9% in April as the economy shed a net 17,700 jobs, according to data from Statistics Canada..
• The fall in employment was solely due to a 46,700 decline in full-time jobs, partially balanced by a 29,000 increase in part-time work.
• The overall employment decline in the first four months of 2026 was driven by full-time jobs, which dropped by 111,000 between January and April, according to StatsCan..
• Money markets are pricing in a single 25-basis-point rate hike in October, which would lift the Bank of Canada’s policy rate to 2.5%.
• Immediate resistance is located at 1.3710 (Daily high), any close above will push the pair towards 1.3769(50%fib).
• Support is seen at 1.4250(61.8%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 1.3543(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 1.3750, with stop loss of 1.3800 and target price of 1.3690
