• EUR/NZD edged lower on Monday as markets monitored U.S.-Iran developments and looked ahead to a busy week of economic data.
• The Trump administration warned countries on Monday to sever business ties with Iran or face secondary sanctions, calling the move an “economic D-Day,” though no penalties were imposed immediately.
• The threat of sanctions follows fears of prolonged inflation that gripped global markets last week as U.S. Treasury yields hit a multi-decade high amid persisting tensions in the Middle East.
• Investors are also watching a series of economic releases this week, including German and French GDP, the German Ifo survey and Spanish inflation data, which could influence expectations for a more hawkish ECB as renewed energy-price pressures raise inflation concerns.
• Money markets are pricing in a more hawkish move from the European Central Bank, betting geopolitical tensions could keep price pressures elevated and drive the deposit rate close to 3% by late 2027.
• Immediate resistance is located at 1.9633(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 1.9740 (38.2%fib).
• Immediate support is seen at 1.9515(Lower BB) and break below could take the pair towards 1.9432(23.6% fib).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 1.9570 with stop loss of 1.9650 and target price of 1.9500
