GBP post-election victory lap has fizzled out

The Conservatives coasted to an absolute majority in the 7 May election by winning 331 seats. The SNP scored a landslide victory in Scotland, winning 56 out of a possible 59 seats. The government is to mull bringing forward a Brexit vote to 2016. A special Budget is planned for 8 July.

CPI fell to -0.1% yoy in April and, core dropped from 1.0% yoy to 0.8% (RPI 0.9% yoy). The ILO unemployment rate slipped to 5.5% from 5.6%, while wage growth rose to 1.9% 3m/yoy.

Societe Generale team sticks to the view that the BoE will raise rates in Q1 2016. In its May Inflation Report, the BoE raised the near-term inflation forecast compared to February but lowered its GDP growth projections .