German financial analysts lowered the ZEW six-month outlook to 28.1 in October from 34.7 in September, even as their survey assessment of present conditions rose 11.2 points to minus 35.9.
The expectations balance compares the share anticipating a stronger economy with the share expecting deterioration; it does not measure economic output. ZEW surveyed 178 financial-market experts from Oct. 12 to Oct. 19. Among them, 35.9% expected improvement over the next six months, 7.8% foresaw deterioration and 56.3% expected no change.
ZEW has run the monthly poll since 1991, drawing on as many as 300 experts from financial institutions and corporate finance teams.
ZEW President Achim Wambach described signs of a turn from stagnation but questioned whether the rebound could last. He linked weak household spending and investment to high energy costs, saying they reduce consumers’ purchasing power, raise production expenses and keep inflation elevated.
Financial-sector balances also declined: banks fell 18.4 points to 34.5, while insurers lost 9.0 points to 37.4. Both readings remained positive. ZEW reported lower readings for services and telecommunications, alongside gains in steel and metal manufacturing and electronics.
For the eurozone, the expectations balance dropped 7.3 points to 18.5. The assessment of current conditions slipped 0.9 point to minus 14.8.
ZEW’s next sentiment release is scheduled for Nov. 17 at 5:05 a.m. ET (10:05 UTC).
