Germany's "Willkommenskultur" and Chancellor Angela Merkel's generous stance on the refugee movement, so prominent during the summer, are coming under pressure as the number of asylum seekers continues to rise. Between January and October, Germany alone registered 331,000 first time asylum seekers (this compares to 1 million refugees the government expects this year), on track to exceed the inflows of the early 1990s (438,000 asylum seekers arrived in 1992).
Standard accommodation capacities are exhausted, logistics are complicated, and sentiment is wobbling. An opinion poll conducted on behalf of ZDF Politbarometer suggests that 50% of respondents now think that Germany cannot handle the refugee crisis, up from 41% in July. Although 70% of survey respondents think Chancellor Merkel does a good job in general (which is a very high approval rating in absolute terms), only 43% of respondents appreciate her stance on refugees.
Support for smaller, less conventional political movements, such as the Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) is rising again. Originally EU friendly but Euro skeptic, AfD increasingly has moved further to the right of the political spectrum, especially on immigration politics. Election polls show rising support for AfD (10.5% according to the latest INSA/YouGov poll, up from 4.7% in the 2013 election).
Rising AfD support may increase pressure on the center-right parties to accommodate electoral concerns (via upper limits to refugee flows or so called "transit zones", ie camps in border proximity are likely to remain prominent avenues). But the AfD's scope for decision making is limited, as it failed to make it into the national parliament in the 2013 elections. The next general election is not scheduled until 3Q17, leaving state elections like Baden Wuerttemberg's (March 16) the only political litmus test.
Risks to the grand coalition between CDU/CSU and social democrats (SPD) should remain limited. The coalition holds 503 of 630 parliamentary seats, giving it a large majority. Smaller opposition parties, such as the Greens or Die Linke, all take a more refugee-friendly position, potentially offsetting the loss of Merkel's support in her own ranks. And though still a very distant event, should the AfD make it into parliament in 2017, the distribution of seats would be even more fragmented, increasing the likelihood of another grand coalition.
