Germany’s industrial output likely declined in February

In January, Germany’s industrial output surged 3.3% m/m, while December’s number was revised upward to -0.3% from -1.2%. This might show relatively good order numbers in the month of October and November. However, with the other indicators showing weakness in the beginning of 2016, Germany’s industrial production is likely to have weakened in February, according to Societe Generale.

“Our forecast is a 1.9% mom decline. Looking ahead, we are optimistic about industrial output in Q2 16”, added Societe Generale.

Meanwhile, Germany’s factory orders and the Ifo survey imply that the country’s exports rebounded in February. They are expected to have increased 0.3% m/m after dropping 0.5% m/m in January, noted Societe Generale. However, imports are expected to have declined 1% m/m after growing 1.2% m/m in January. Germany’s trade balance is likely to increase to EUR 19.3 billion from EUR 13.6 billion, according to Societe Generale.