Arabica coffee is currently unable to make any significant price gains. Minor upward movements are quickly corrected again, and Arabica is now priced at around 120 US cents per pound again.
The dominant subject on the market continues to be the ongoing dry weather in Brazil's growing areas, though every report of sporadic rainfall causes the price to dip briefly. The pollination phase will not be finished until December, until which time there is likely to be particularly high uncertainty about the 2016/17 crop and prices will doubtless remain prone to fluctuation, says Commerzbank.
The International Coffee Organization announced recently that global coffee exports in 2014/15 coffee year were fell to five year low for first time. They decreased by a good 3% to 111 million bags in total - around 68.5 million bags of Arabica and 42.5 million bags of Robusta.
In percentage terms, Robusta coffee declined considerably more sharply than Arabica. This reflects a reluctance to sell, especially on the part of Vietnamese suppliers, though this did not result in the hoped-for price rise. Now stocks in the country are high at a time when harvesting of the new crop has already begun.
The crop was disappointing due to the dry conditions. Nonetheless, the majority of short-term-oriented market participants continues to bet on further falling prices.
