Goldman Sachs expects global economic growth to pick up modestly in 2027, while its forecast of two more Federal Reserve increases keeps the U.S. policy path central to the outlook.
The bank projects global economic growth of 2.8% next year, compared with an estimated 2.7% in 2026. Goldman expects lower energy costs and continued AI investment to support activity despite tighter financial conditions and less fiscal support.
The AI outlook also connects with Goldman’s earlier forecast for global data-center capacity, which put capacity at 273 gigawatts by 2030.
On U.S. rates, Goldman’s forecast calls for an increase in December, another in March 2027 and the first cut in December 2027. Those are Goldman’s projections for future Fed decisions.
Goldman also expects U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to stand at 2.4% at the end of 2027. The forecast places that inflation measure alongside the bank’s expected path of rate increases and later cuts.
Goldman flags three pressure points: Iran-related tension that raises energy costs, fiscal deficits that lift long-term yields and AI investment that misses expectations. The bank says risks are tilted toward slower growth and lower interest rates. Its next expected Fed move is a rate increase in December.
