Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee urged policymakers to watch for signs of an overheating U.S. economy after consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, with missing survey data limiting the annual comparison.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for urban consumers rose 0.4% from September, after a 0.6% increase the month before. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, gained 0.3% for a third consecutive month. Shelter prices increased 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of October’s overall monthly rise.
BLS did not publish a 12-month change for the all-items CPI. The agency lacked October 2025 survey data after a lapse in appropriations and could not calculate the year-over-year comparison. The missing figure limits what the October release can show about the recent annual pace of headline inflation.
Goolsbee described inflation as above the Federal Reserve’s goal, but the CPI figures do not by themselves establish that comparison. The Fed’s longer-run 2% goal is measured by the annual change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a separate measure from CPI.
In an interview published by Yahoo Finance on Nov. 12, Goolsbee said the latest increase “wasn’t a one-off month.” His concern, he said, was that unanchored expectations could contribute to a wage-price spiral that would be difficult and painful to reverse. Market-based measures had not yet shown expectations becoming unanchored, he said. Goolsbee also identified services and health care as persistent price pressures, which he said tariffs and oil prices did not explain. The comments followed his earlier public warnings about services inflation. His remarks called for vigilance about a possible risk; neither the interview nor the CPI release established that the economy was already overheating.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting is scheduled for Dec. 8-9. BLS is due to release November CPI data Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
