Grexit risks much larger

The anti-euro campaign is only starting in Greece. The bailout implementation will be very painful, and any economic recovery has been postponed, long into 2016 even in the best case. The election-related uncertainty will be another blow for the economy, so the economy is likely to suffer a huge hit during the second half of this year.

"Such performance could easily increase the anti-bailout sentiment, and at the same time make it harder for the next government to continue to implement the bailout. As this time the alternative is openly admitted - exiting the euro - people will have a better picture of the choice involved. The recent history of the willingness of Greece to implement its programmes heavily suggests it will not meet the new conditions either, at which time the Grexit issue will return", says Nordea Bank.

Other Euro-area countries can always offer yet more concessions on the programme terms, but if the Greek people at some point are sufficiently fed up to support the anti-bailout, anti-euro camp, Grexit cannot be avoided.