Heat stress could reduce annual working time in Ethiopia and Ghana by 2040 at a scale equivalent to about 2.33 million full-time jobs combined, according to International Labour Organization (ILO) studies. The ILO estimates the losses at 1.78 million job equivalents in Ethiopia and 550,000 in Ghana under its low-emissions pathway.
The combined figure is calculated from the ILO’s country estimates. It does not mean that employers are projected to eliminate 2.33 million positions: the studies convert modeled reductions in work hours into full-time-equivalent job losses, relative to average conditions from 1985 to 2014.
The same scenario projects annual GDP losses of $33.3 billion in Ethiopia and $23.2 billion in Ghana by 2040, in fixed 2015 U.S. dollars. The ILO’s studies cover four other countries as well: projected GDP losses are $26 billion in Sri Lanka, $10.5 billion in Senegal, $2.6 billion in Lebanon and $575.5 million in the Maldives.
The studies also estimate that heat-related losses in 2023 were equivalent to 1,005,771 full-time jobs in Ethiopia and 345,003 in Ghana, compared with the historical average. Agriculture accounted for about three-quarters of Ethiopia’s modeled 2023 job-equivalent losses and 66% of Ghana’s, according to the country studies.
The ILO advises moving shifts away from peak heat, scheduling rest periods, providing shade, water and cooling, and monitoring temperatures at worksites. Its Ghana study also calls for social protection measures that can help informal workers shift their hours and protect income.
“Protecting workers from heat stress should not be viewed as an additional burden but as an investment in workers’ health, productivity and working conditions,” Marlene Attallah, a deputy director general at Lebanon’s Ministry of Labour, said in an ILO release.
