Yole Group’s forecast for 331,000 robotaxis in 2031 sets the backdrop for Hesai Group’s claim that it held 62% of the global robotaxi lidar market in 2025.
Hesai said its share was higher than the combined share of other suppliers and up from 61% in Yole’s previous report. The 62% figure comes from Hesai’s account of Yole’s Robotaxi 2026 report.
Lidar measures distance by timing reflected light pulses, according to the Federal Highway Administration. Yole’s public analysis forecasts a global fleet of 331,000 robotaxis in 2031, with average annual growth of 78%, and 2 million by 2035, at a 57% compound annual growth rate. The forecast excludes robotrucks and robobuses or shuttles.
Hesai’s announcement gives an approximate 2025 fleet baseline of 10,000 vehicles. Using that estimate and Yole’s 2031 forecast, the fleet would be about 33 times as large in 2031 as in 2025. That comparison is calculated from the two estimates, rather than a separate figure reported by Yole.
Yole’s public analysis does not reproduce the 62% share figure or specify whether it is based on revenue, shipments or another measure. It also does not define the market’s precise geographic or supplier scope, so the ranking is attributable here to Hesai’s account of the report.
Yole links its growth outlook to lower vehicle and manufacturing costs, more commercial services, end-to-end algorithms, hybrid robotaxi and driver-based ride-hailing operations, and convergence between L2+ and L4 systems. It reports that vehicle bill-of-materials and manufacturing costs have declined by as much as 70% across several models, but does not specify the period for those reductions.
Yu Yang, PhD, Principal Lead Analyst, Automotives & Robotics at Yole Group, said the industry’s next test is whether robotaxi operators can build viable businesses.
Hesai’s board is scheduled to consider its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 10, and the company’s earnings call is scheduled for 7 a.m. ET that day.
