Hong Kong’s real GDP grew 5.2% year over year in the third quarter, as stronger exports and investment supported faster growth than in the previous quarter, official advance estimates showed.
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) reported that seasonally adjusted real GDP rose 1.9% from the second quarter. The latest data table shows a 0.7% quarter-over-quarter contraction in Q2. Real GDP grew 5.1% over the first three quarters of 2026, the strongest pace for that period in five years, the government said.
Real goods exports climbed 30.4% from a year earlier, while gross domestic fixed capital formation — a measure of investment in fixed assets — increased 7.3%. Real private consumption rose 2.8%, and government consumption grew 1.7%.
FXStreet reported Nov. 4 that UOB economist Ho Woei Chen raised the bank’s real GDP growth forecast to 5.0% for 2026, from 3.9%, and to 3.0% for 2027, from 2.4%. The reported 2026 projection is above the Hong Kong government’s August outlook, which put full-year growth at 3.5% to 4.5%.
Officials expect demand tied to global investment in artificial intelligence to support goods exports. They cited tourism, cross-boundary traffic and financial-market activity as supports for services. The government also identified Middle East tensions and tighter monetary policies at major central banks as risks to monitor.
The C&SD is scheduled to publish revised third-quarter figures and an updated 2026 growth forecast on Nov. 13.
