Howard Marks, co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, says investors may need about 10 years to judge whether AI infrastructure spending can earn profits that justify its cost.
In a Feb. 26, 2026, memo, Marks argued that investors may be overlooking how much artificial intelligence could change business. He described the technology as already in broad use, while cautioning that adoption and business potential do not establish whether related investments will pay off.
In a September interview, Marks acknowledged investor excitement but said business results and future earnings were still too uncertain to judge whether that enthusiasm was irrational. “We certainly have exuberance. The question is whether it’s irrational,” he said.
Marks has framed the technology’s promise and its investment returns as separate questions. The estimate of about 10 years concerns how long it may take to assess whether profits from AI infrastructure justify the capital committed to it.
A Dec. 9, 2025, memo described a risk in technology booms: companies may build more infrastructure than they can use, while asset valuations can exceed what those assets ultimately prove worth. Marks also warned that debt can magnify the risks of overinvestment.
