Armed groups controlled or contested territory home to an estimated 204 million people in October 2025, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said, with civilians in many contested areas lacking reliable services.
The distinction matters: 74 million people lived in areas under full armed-group control, while 130 million lived where groups challenged state authority. The combined estimate does not mean every person counted lived under armed-group rule.
The ICRC’s 2025 assessment covered 383 groups it considered a humanitarian concern in more than 60 countries. Africa accounted for 111 million people in controlled or contested areas, followed by 37 million in the Near and Middle East, 35 million in the Americas and 21 million in Asia and the Pacific.
Among the groups it tracked, 85% provided a public service, provided or imposed security, or collected taxes. Of those controlling or contesting territory, 81% had held that position for at least four years. Those measures do not show whether residents could depend on the services. The ICRC said that in many contested areas, neither state authorities nor armed groups reliably provide them, and residents can struggle to obtain civil documents.
The effects extend to trade and livelihoods. A United Nations Security Council report said Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) began targeting fuel convoys bound for Bamako in September 2025, disrupting supplies to Mali’s capital. The report said the campaign was intended to put economic pressure on the government and also described attacks on mining sites and other economic targets.
In Southeast Asia, the U.S. Treasury Department said the Karen National Army protected a scam hub in Shwe Kokko, Myanmar, when it announced sanctions tied to scam operations in Myanmar and Cambodia in September 2025. The release described forced labor and violence against people made to work in scam centers. It cited a U.S. government estimate that Americans lost at least $10 billion in 2024 to scams based across Southeast Asia; that regional figure is not a loss estimate for the Shwe Kokko hub.
The ICRC’s 2025 total was 30 million above its 2021 figure but below its 2024 estimate of 210 million. It draws the estimates from information gathered by its delegations rather than a population census, and cautions that changes in survey methods and operational priorities can affect comparisons between years.
