ING analyst Chris Turner says chip-related growth in Japan could weigh on USD/JPY if demand spreads across the economy and makes tighter Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy more likely.
Turner has pointed to South Korea as a possible comparison. The Bank of Korea (BOK) raised its forecast for calendar-year 2026 growth to 3.3% in August, from 1.8% in November 2025, after lifting it to 2.0% in February and 2.6% in May. The BOK’s advance estimate showed real GDP grew 1.0% quarter over quarter and 3.4% year over year in July-September 2026.
Japan’s role in the chip industry includes supplying equipment used in semiconductor production. The Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) forecasts ¥6.55 trillion in sales of Japanese-made chipmaking equipment in fiscal 2026, up 26% from the previous fiscal year. That fiscal year runs from April 2026 through March 2027, and the forecast covers domestic and overseas sales by Japanese manufacturers.
The BOJ’s October outlook raised its median real GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026 to 0.7%, from 0.6% in July. It cited AI demand and government measures as supports, while identifying higher energy and raw-material costs as a possible drag on business profits and household incomes. The outlook points to potential gains for equipment makers alongside cost pressures for companies and households.
The BOJ kept its overnight rate target at about 1.25% at its Oct. 29-30 meeting. A summary of opinions released Nov. 9 at 6:50 p.m. ET (Nov. 10 at 8:50 a.m. JST) linked AI-related activity in Japan to suppliers of semiconductor materials and production equipment, as well as data centers. Some views recorded in the summary questioned how long that support would last; another said household spending was not yet leading growth.
Japan’s first estimate of July-September GDP is due Sunday, Nov. 15, at 6:50 p.m. ET (Nov. 16 at 8:50 a.m. JST). The BOJ’s next scheduled policy meeting is Dec. 17-18.
