The National Bank of Romania's limits on large leu swings have curbed import-price pressure, but higher domestic costs could weaken exporters' cost competitiveness, ING Chief Economist for Romania Valentin Tataru said.
The European Central Bank's reference rate was 5.3308 lei per euro on Oct. 20, up from 5.2830 on Oct. 1. The figures are reference rates, not prices for individual transactions.
For exporters, the exchange rate is only part of the calculation. When wages and other local costs rise faster than those abroad, Romanian producers can lose a cost advantage unless productivity improves or the leu weakens enough to compensate. ING said the apparent cost disadvantage has yet to translate into an equally weak export performance.
The International Monetary Fund estimated that a unit-labor-cost measure of Romania's real effective exchange rate appreciated 11.6% in 2024. In its 2025 assessment, the fund described the legal currency arrangement as a managed float and found the exchange rate stabilized in practice. The IMF recommended greater exchange-rate flexibility, while the Romanian central bank argued that currency stability helped anchor the economy.
Consumers face a different pressure. ING said a faster decline in the leu would raise the local-currency cost of imports. Romania's annual EU-harmonized inflation rate was 6.5% in September, compared with 3.8% across the European Union, Eurostat reported.
The National Bank of Romania put the current-account deficit at €19.925 billion for January through August, up from €18.983 billion a year earlier. ING attributed most of the widening in the first half of 2026 to investment-income outflows and debt-servicing costs; it said the goods-and-services deficit changed little over that period.
The European Commission has linked part of Romania's external imbalances to high government deficits. It said unit labor costs rose rapidly in 2023 and 2024 before growth slowed in 2025. In a May forecast, the commission projected that real unit labor costs would fall in 2026 amid high inflation and slower growth in nominal compensation, supporting cost competitiveness.
ING identified underlying and services inflation as measures of whether domestic price pressure is easing.
