The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast isolated extremely heavy rain in southern India as a Bay of Bengal low could strengthen into a cyclonic storm by Oct. 26.
In an analysis valid at 11 p.m. ET Oct. 23 (8:30 a.m. IST Oct. 24), IMD described a well-marked low over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. It forecast the system to become a depression on Oct. 24, then a deep depression on Oct. 25, before possibly reaching cyclonic-storm strength over the west-central Bay on Oct. 26.
IMD projected a west-northwest track, with the system reaching the west-central Bay near the Andhra Pradesh coast around Oct. 28. The bulletin did not specify a landfall point or time.
Rainfall warnings vary by area. IMD forecast isolated extremely heavy rain in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal from Oct. 24-26. Kerala and Mahe are forecast to have fairly widespread to widespread rain from Oct. 24-28, including isolated extremely heavy rain on Oct. 25-26. Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka could see isolated very heavy rain on Oct. 24; South Interior Karnataka could also have isolated heavy rain on Oct. 25. IMD defines extremely heavy rain as at least 204.5 millimeters in 24 hours.
The agency forecast gale winds exceeding 70-80 km/h, gusting to 90 km/h, over the west-central and adjoining east-central Bay on Oct. 26. The bulletin also listed areas where fishermen should avoid going to sea on subsequent dates.
