India needs $523.8 billion in goods and services exports from October through March to reach its $1 trillion fiscal 2026-27 goal, based on government estimates for the first half.
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal restated the goal Thursday, Oct. 29, at the New Delhi curtain raiser for the Invest Telangana Global Summit, the Ministry of Commerce & Industry said. The ministry said Goyal framed the target as a sign that exporters, industry associations and businesses were ready to outperform conventional forecasts. Earlier this month, he expressed confidence India would meet the goal. At the event, he cited conflicts in West Asia and Ukraine, as well as disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, as global uncertainties.
The ministry estimated combined exports at $476.2 billion for April-September, a 13.84% increase from a year earlier. Merchandise exports rose 18.51% to $259.89 billion. Services exports were estimated at $216.31 billion, compared with $199.02 billion in the same period a year earlier. The required second-half total is about 10% above the first-half estimate.
Imports reached an estimated $551.13 billion, leaving a combined goods and services trade deficit of $74.93 billion, up from $58.10 billion a year earlier. Merchandise alone recorded a $177.64 billion deficit, compared with $156.88 billion in the prior-year period.
India’s exports totaled $863.1 billion in fiscal 2025-26, according to a July Commerce Ministry release. Reaching $1 trillion would put exports about 16% above that annual total.
Goyal cited nine recently finalized trade agreements covering economies with a combined GDP of $60 trillion. The ministry said existing agreements provide preferential access to markets representing $70 trillion in GDP, while eight ongoing negotiations could add access to economies with a combined GDP of $15 trillion. It did not estimate how much additional export revenue the agreements might generate.
For Telangana, Goyal proposed matching 50 export goods and services with markets where India’s current pacts offer preferential terms.
The first-half total includes estimates: the ministry said September services exports were estimated because the latest available Reserve Bank of India (RBI) services data covered August. It also said some comparison-period figures were revised using quarterly balance-of-payments data.
