India’s finished-steel consumption grew faster than crude-steel production in April-September 2026, while imports rose 23.8%, as Aditya Birla Money issued Buy ratings on JSW Steel and Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL).
The brokerage also assigned Add ratings to Tata Steel and Jindal Steel and a Positive view on ArcelorMittal. Its research emphasizes JSW Steel’s planned capacity additions and anticipates a margin recovery at SAIL.
Aditya Birla Money’s model assumes Indian steel consumption growth of 7.5%, with supply and demand each expanding 6% to 8% a year. It projects inventories falling from roughly 10 million tonnes to near zero over three years. The brokerage supports its outlook with historical relationships between inventory levels and steel prices.
The Ministry of Steel reported provisional finished-steel consumption of 85.0 million tonnes during the six-month period, up 7.6% year over year. Crude-steel production reached 85.1 million tonnes, a 2.9% increase. Finished-steel exports rose 26.2% to 3.55 million tonnes, but India remained a net importer by volume.
JSW Steel’s 2025-26 annual report sets a target of 62 million tonnes of domestic installed capacity, excluding joint ventures, by fiscal 2031-32. It also records approved capital allocation of ₹1,26,161 crore over four to five years.
SAIL reported first-half crude-steel production of 9.6 million tonnes, up 1%, and high-end steel production of about 2 million tonnes, up 30%. It also reported reducing borrowings by ₹208 crore in September. Those figures provide operating context for the brokerage’s margin view but do not measure a margin recovery.
India’s safeguard duty on specified non-alloy and alloy flat-steel products is set at 11.5% through April 20, 2027, then 11% through April 20, 2028. The Ministry says the measure is intended to protect domestic producers from import surges. Aditya Birla Money expects the duty could continue beyond its scheduled end, a forecast rather than an announced extension.
The World Steel Association forecasts global steel demand will remain essentially flat at 1.722 billion tonnes in 2026, while Indian demand rises 7.9% to 172.4 million tonnes. For 2027, it projects global demand growth of 1.7% and Indian demand growth of 8% to 186.2 million tonnes.
