India's merchandise exports rose 18.51% in April through September 2026, while an analyst forecast stronger corporate earnings for the quarters ending September and December as the trade deficit widened.
The Ministry of Commerce and Industry put merchandise exports at $259.89 billion for the six-month period, up from $219.30 billion a year earlier. Exports excluding petroleum, gems and jewelry rose to $203.41 billion from $175.06 billion.
In September 2026, electronic-goods exports climbed 70.44% from a year earlier to $5.31 billion, while engineering-goods exports rose 20.91% to $12.17 billion, the ministry said. Exports of cotton yarn, fabrics, made-ups and handloom products increased 20.76% to $1.12 billion.
Vijayaraghavan Swaminathan, Avendus Spark Institutional Equities' managing director and head of research, expects healthier earnings in fiscal Q2 and Q3 of FY27. Those quarters end in September and December 2026, respectively, in the fiscal year ending March 2027. He gave the forecast in an interview published Oct. 21 by NDTV Profit.
Swaminathan identified electronics manufacturing services, capital goods and textiles as segments that could benefit if manufacturing exports gain momentum over the next 18 to 24 months. The shipment figures show export growth but do not establish whether corporate earnings will improve.
Merchandise imports rose to $437.53 billion in April through September, from $376.17 billion a year earlier. Imports rose by $61.36 billion, compared with a $40.59 billion increase in exports, widening the merchandise trade deficit to $177.64 billion from $156.88 billion, according to the ministry.
India's provisional consumer price inflation was 5.54% in September 2026, and the provisional food inflation reading was 7.74%, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reported. The figures provide economic context; they do not measure an effect on company earnings.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on Oct. 7. In its policy resolution, the central bank cited credit flows, capacity use and government infrastructure spending as supports for investment, while identifying energy prices and weather conditions as risks. Its next policy meeting is scheduled for Dec. 2-4.
