India’s Ministry of Finance put real growth for fiscal 2026-27 at 7.3% in its October review, above an earlier government range, as September inflation readings showed rising price pressures.
The Economic Survey projected real GDP growth of 6.8%-7.2% for FY27. The ministry’s October review also estimated growth of 7.35% in the July-September quarter, compared with 7.3% in its September review. FY27 runs from April 2026 through March 2027.
The ministry based its quarterly figure on a nowcasting model that uses high-frequency indicators, or data available before quarterly national accounts. The 7.35% figure is an estimate, not an official GDP result.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country’s central bank, projected growth of 7.1% for FY27 and 7.2% for the second quarter in an Oct. 7 statement. EconoTimes covered the RBI’s separate FY27 outlook. The bank cited oil-price volatility linked to conflict in West Asia, energy and supply-chain pressures, and El Niño and monsoon risks to agriculture and rural demand.
India’s economy grew 7.8% year over year in April-June, the first quarter of FY27, according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). EconoTimes previously reported the first-quarter growth figure and its employment context.
MoSPI reported provisional combined consumer inflation of 5.54% year over year in September, up from 4.83% in August. Food inflation was provisionally 7.74% year over year. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry reported provisional year-over-year inflation of 25.85% in the Wholesale Price Index’s Fuel and Power group, compared with 22.93% in August. That wholesale reading measures prices before retail sale; it does not establish what households paid for fuel.
MoSPI’s release calendar schedules the official second-quarter GDP estimate for Nov. 30.
