India is the sole emerging-market economy among nine with GDP above $1 trillion forecast to lower its general-government debt-to-GDP ratio through 2031, while global debt rises, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said.
Gupta cited the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, which estimates India’s general-government gross debt at 84.3% of GDP for fiscal 2025-26 and 75.1% for fiscal 2031-32. India’s figures use fiscal years; the IMF’s global and regional comparisons use calendar years. Under the IMF’s definition, gross debt covers liabilities requiring principal or interest payments.
For the world as a whole, the IMF projects public debt at 94% of GDP in 2025, above 100% in 2030 and close to 102% in 2031. Advanced economies are projected to move from 108.2% in 2025 to 115.2% in 2031. For emerging-market and developing economies, the forecast rises from 73.7% to 84.2% over the same period.
Gupta linked India’s projected decline to fiscal consolidation and a lower primary deficit. She cited nominal GDP growth of roughly 11% a year and an effective interest rate of about 7% on government debt as factors supporting the projected path.
General-government capital expenditure reached 5.8% of GDP in fiscal 2025-26, compared with around 4% in fiscal 2019-20, Gupta said. She argued that higher public investment could draw in private investors and support longer-term growth.
Gupta said domestic holders own much of India’s public debt, which is largely payable in local currency and due over longer periods. She cautioned that heavier debt burdens and more expensive borrowing could narrow governments’ ability to handle future shocks.
