Union Bank of India’s Banking Research Team put the outstanding announced private capex pipeline at Rs 99.7 lakh crore (Rs 99.7 trillion) in September 2026, warning that concentration could expose lenders to execution risks.
In an Oct. 21 report, the bank’s Banking Research Team said the pipeline was up 39% from a year earlier and stood at 4.1 times its March 2014 level. The measure tracks estimated costs for announced projects still listed in CMIE-CapEx data. It does not show how much has been spent, which projects are complete or how much credit banks have sanctioned.
The value of the pipeline grew 87% over two years, while the number of projects rose 18%. The bank’s main series covered 5,311 projects, with an average size of Rs 1,878 crore, 2.7 times the March 2014 figure. From July through September 2026, 293 projects were added and the pipeline grew by Rs 2.9 lakh crore, following a Rs 13.5 lakh crore increase in April-June.
The investment was concentrated across both industries and states. Manufacturing accounted for Rs 41.3 lakh crore and electricity for Rs 32.2 lakh crore, together 74% of the total. Services reached Rs 21.9 lakh crore after growing 347% year over year. Power generation, IT and IT-enabled services, metals and chemicals together represented 80% of the pipeline.
Maharashtra’s share was about 29%, compared with 9% in 2014, and the five largest states held 68% of the total. Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha and Uttar Pradesh together accounted for 94% of the year’s net increase.
IT-enabled services and conventional power contributed Rs 16.8 lakh crore and Rs 7.6 lakh crore, respectively, or 87% of the annual net increase combined. The IT-enabled services pipeline grew from Rs 2.2 lakh crore to Rs 18.9 lakh crore across 160 projects.
The bank said lenders could gain project-finance business but face risk from concentrated exposures and projects that do not proceed. It also highlighted a gap between Rs 32 lakh crore planned for power generation and Rs 0.17 lakh crore for transmission, which could constrain the movement of electricity from plants. The research team recommended checking execution, financing requirements and supporting infrastructure, alongside exposure limits, consortium lending, milestone-linked disbursements and quarterly pipeline reviews.
