India's disinflationary trend and fiscal indiscipline could raise India’s debt weight
For an economy that is officially expected to grow at 8.5% during FY16, up from 7.4%forecast for FY15, it might appear strange that the government aims to provide fiscalstimulus. However, the new India's GDP series has f…
For an economy that is officially expected to grow at 8.5% during FY16, up from 7.4%forecast for FY15, it might appear strange that the government aims to provide fiscalstimulus.
However, the new India's GDP series has flummoxed everybody and multiple other underlying data show that while real economic activity is showing signs of picking up, the recovery so far appear weak.
Societe Generale notes...
More importantly, investment activity remains sluggish and projects worth trillions of rupees are still on hold.
To that extent, the government's desire to fill the vacuum created by weak private-sector investment activity is welcome.
Of course, it has been afforded some fiscal space by the falling crude price (resulting in alower oil subsidy).
However, for a government that is courting the credit rating agencies for an upgrade of the country's sovereign rating, deviating from the path of fiscal discipline, even if temporarily, is not a desirable option.
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