An Ipsos poll conducted for Global News found broad support outside Alberta for greater provincial control over immigration but weaker backing for leaving federal programs, as related referendum results await verification.
Among adults surveyed outside the province, 74% favored giving provinces more say over immigration policy, and 84% supported requiring proof of Canadian citizenship to vote in provincial elections. Support was 37% for allowing provinces to leave federal programs while retaining equivalent federal funding. The questions resembled parts of Alberta’s Oct. 19 ballot but did not reproduce its wording.
Ipsos surveyed 900 adults outside Alberta online from Sept. 18 to 22 and reported a ±4.0 percentage-point credibility interval for that group. Because the survey statements were shorter than the referendum questions, the figures do not show how respondents would have voted on the ballot as written. One Ipsos item concerned denying access to provincially funded programs and services to people without legal status in Canada. Alberta’s ballot addressed some people with nonpermanent legal immigration status.
Elections Alberta’s unofficial count showed voters favored remaining in Canada over directing the provincial government to take legal steps under the Canadian Constitution toward a later binding provincial referendum on separation. The vote was nonbinding. Alongside the separation question, nine questions on immigration, services and provincial authority sought voters’ views on policy changes; the vote did not enact them.
Some proposals would affect people with nonpermanent legal immigration status if adopted later. One asked whether they should have to reside in Alberta for at least 12 months before qualifying for provincially funded social supports. Another proposed what the ballot called a reasonable fee or premium for those individuals and their families to use health care and education.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said she sought a mandate for immigration changes and a stronger provincial role within Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney welcomed the result on separation in an Oct. 20 statement and said votes on all questions were still being counted.
The poll’s differing levels of support do not establish the outcome of the nine policy questions, whose counts must be considered separately. Elections Alberta plans to announce verified results on Oct. 29 at noon ET (10 a.m. Mountain time).
