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Biggest question circulating in the oil market is how Iran's presence might impact the market.
- In June 5 meeting OPEC members kept production target unchanged at 30 million barrels/day. Though the level is already high it is not enough to accommodate additional Iranian supply. It is not clear whether OPEC members might go for additional increase in target to accommodate Iranian supply once sanctions are removed or Iran will have to accommodate itself within current quota.
- Iran's oil minister assured that Iran will reenter the market swiftly and won't remain bound by any OPEC quotas. Iran is likely to increase export by at least a million barrels/day within 6-7 months of sanctions removal.
Iranian production data, as shown in chart is confirming what Iran's oil minister said.
- 2015 so far, seeing increase in oil production in Iran. Production now stands at highest level since 2012. In April, production climbed by 90,000 barrels/day to 2.88 million barrels/day. That is still far from what Iran was producing before sanctions were imposed (approx. 4 million barrels/day).
Market will now focus on the nuclear negotiations, which is scheduled to be finalized by end of June.
Brent is currently trading at $64/barrel at $5/barrel premium to WTI.
