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Iraq is pushing for a substantial increase in its OPEC+ oil production quota, seeking to have future output targets calculated using a production capacity of 6 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.
The proposal comes as OPEC+ reviews the sustainable production capacity of its members, a process that could reshape how oil quotas are allocated across the producer alliance. Iraq’s requested baseline would be significantly higher than its current OPEC+ production ceiling of 4.431 million bpd for September and October.
Actual Iraqi oil production has recently been considerably lower. The country pumped an average of 2.98 million bpd in August, according to a Bloomberg survey, as the ongoing Iran conflict disrupted crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global energy supplies.
OPEC+ has appointed an external consultant to evaluate the maximum sustainable production capacity of its members. The assessment is expected to be completed by the end of September, with OPEC+ oil ministers scheduled to consider and ratify the findings in November.
Whether Iraq can secure recognition of its requested 6 million bpd capacity remains uncertain. The International Energy Agency (IEA) currently estimates Iraq’s sustainable oil production capacity at approximately 4.9 million bpd, around 1.1 million barrels below Baghdad’s proposed baseline.
A higher capacity assessment could eventually give Iraq greater room to increase crude production under future OPEC+ agreements. The country is one of the alliance’s largest producers and has repeatedly sought more flexibility over its output limits.
The quota negotiations could also create additional tensions within OPEC+. Iraq has previously threatened to withdraw from OPEC if it does not receive a sufficiently large production quota, raising questions about unity within the oil-producing group.
The outcome of the capacity review will therefore be closely watched by global oil markets as OPEC+ considers future production policy and member quotas.
