Israel’s Oct. 27 election is expected to produce a fragmented Knesset, with final polls showing the main blocs short of a majority and leaving coalition negotiations central to forming a government.
The Central Elections Committee lists 7,336,553 eligible voters. Israelis cast ballots for party lists rather than choosing a prime minister directly. Lists must clear a 3.25% share of valid votes to win seats; with 120 lawmakers in the Knesset, a governing majority requires 61.
Polls published Friday, Oct. 23, projected different totals for the change bloc. KAN projected 52 seats for the bloc and 50 for the coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Channel 12 put the change bloc at 56 seats and Netanyahu’s coalition at 50; Channel 13 projected 54 and 50. KAN projected 14 seats for Arab parties and four for the Reservists faction. Channel 12 projected 14 for Arab parties, while Channel 13 projected 16.
An Israel Democracy Institute survey conducted Aug. 31-Sept. 3, 2026, found that 38% of Jewish respondents and 46% of Arab respondents ranked economic and living-cost issues among their top two considerations for the ballot.
Arab-led parties could gain bargaining weight from their projected seat totals, although the Associated Press reported that Netanyahu and opposition figures have said they would not form a coalition with them. On Oct. 2, the Supreme Court overturned the Central Elections Committee’s decisions to disqualify the Joint List and Ra’am, according to Adalah, which represented the lists. Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen told the Associated Press, “We have to use our political power in order to basically block the deterioration of the situation.”
The Associated Press said campaign debate has revisited security failures before the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, alongside exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox men and the government’s changes to the judiciary. The Associated Press also reported that Netanyahu’s government could remain in caretaker status during talks, with another election possible if parties cannot form a governing majority. Israelis are scheduled to vote Tuesday, Oct. 27.
