A Middle East Forum polling average gives Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc 54 seats and opposition parties 52 ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 election, leaving both short of a governing majority.
The Knesset has 120 seats and requires 61 for a majority. The average, updated Oct. 19, assigns 14 seats to Arab-led parties: eight to the Joint List and six to Ra’am. Shas and United Torah Judaism, Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies, receive eight seats each. The figures draw on seven polling houses’ fieldwork from Oct. 1 to 15. They are estimates; final seat totals will depend on the vote.
Neither major bloc reaches 61 in the average, leaving coalition negotiations to determine whether smaller parties can help assemble a majority. The Associated Press reported that Netanyahu and leading rivals have ruled out forming a coalition with Arab-led parties. Support from a party outside a governing coalition would be a separate arrangement.
The Supreme Court of Israel unanimously allowed the Joint List and Ra’am to run on Oct. 2, finding the evidence submitted to disqualify the lists insufficient. Parliamentary records list a 2021 coalition agreement between Ra’am and Yesh Atid, a precedent for an Arab-led party joining a governing coalition.
Voter priorities span several issues. In an Israel Democracy Institute survey of 150 Arab adults and 605 Jewish adults conducted Aug. 31-Sept. 3, 53.5% of Arab respondents ranked party positions on crime in Arab society among their top two voting factors. Forty-six percent of Arab respondents and 38% of Jewish respondents ranked party positions on the economy and high cost of living among their top two factors. Among Jewish respondents, 27% ranked party positions on conscription among their top two.
Military service may also shape coalition talks. The Knesset approved a temporary measure July 14 freezing arrests of qualifying yeshiva students through Nov. 30, then separately extended compulsory service to 32 months on July 17. The arrest freeze benefits qualifying students, while the longer service term affects those required to serve.
The Central Elections Committee has scheduled the vote for Oct. 27 and publication of official results for Nov. 4.
