A JPMorgan scenario map reported by NDTV Profit and CNBC-TV18 assigns the biggest projected S&P 500 gain to a Republican sweep, despite giving that outcome 7% odds, as U.S. voters decide control of Congress Tuesday.
The outlets said the map’s most likely result was a Democratic sweep, at 66%, with an estimated S&P 500 move from a 0.25% decline to a 0.5% gain. A Democratic House paired with a Republican Senate carried 26% odds and a projected rise of 0.5% to 1%. A Republican House with a Democratic Senate had 1% odds and an estimated increase of 0.25% to 0.75%. The Republican sweep was assigned a projected gain of 1% to 1.25%. The reports do not specify the period covered by these estimates. NDTV Profit said the map used Bloomberg prediction-market data as of Nov. 1.
For a Democratic House and Republican Senate, the reported analysis said the split could reduce deficit spending and put downward pressure on long-term Treasury yields. It associated a Republican sweep with continued deficit spending and higher long-term yields. CNBC-TV18 separately reported that a Republican House and Democratic Senate could bring tougher budget disputes, a possible government shutdown and investigations of business leaders.
The reports also said JPMorgan viewed concern about AI regulation under Democratic control as a potential weight on technology shares. The analysis argued restrictive legislation would face a presidential veto and that Democrats would not have enough votes to override one.
A separate Oct. 14 analysis from J.P. Morgan Asset Management said polls at the time favored divided government. Ian Hui, a global market strategist at the firm, wrote that the election’s market relevance was “policy uncertainty, not the election itself.” Hui said economic conditions and monetary policy tend to matter more to long-term returns than election outcomes. The analysis put the S&P 500’s average return in the calendar year after a midterm at about 3% and said Congress affects fiscal policy, government spending, taxes and the debt ceiling.
Voters are deciding all 435 House seats and about one-third of the Senate on Nov. 3.
