A Kalshi contract on a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement stood at 56% Friday morning ET, with its outcome tied to whether the companies publicly announce a binding agreement before March 1, 2027.
The Oct. 16 reading was up from a prior 29%, while contracts with April and May deadlines also showed similar odds. Under the contract rules, a definitive, binding agreement must be publicly announced before March 1, 2027; the merger itself does not have to close by then.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy's Wednesday note considered possible links between Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus initiatives and the products Grok and Macrohard. It also cited Terafab, a chip development effort involving Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, as a possible reason for combining the companies.
At a Thursday event, Tesla connected the hover feature of its next-generation Roadster with SpaceX technology. The 56% figure reflects the contract's market price; it does not confirm that the companies have agreed to combine.
