Kalshi contract pricing for Vice President JD Vance’s 2028 presidential prospects fell after Democrats’ Nov. 3 midterm victories, as Republicans also lost a Senate seat in Ohio, the state Vance represented in the Senate.
Kalshi’s presidential contract put Vance at 14% on Nov. 4, down from 20% on Nov. 2. His odds of securing the Republican nomination declined to 30% from 35% the previous day. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s odds of winning the nomination stood at 23%, according to Kalshi’s market pricing.
The Associated Press and Reuters reported that Democrats won control of both the House and Senate. The Associated Press projected Sherrod Brown to win the Ohio Senate race against Republican incumbent Jon Husted, who held the seat Vance vacated. Brown defeated Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Husted. Ohio gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton also won her race, defeating Republican Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.
In a Nov. 4 statement, Vance blamed the Iran war for the election losses, writing, “The reason we lost is the war.” He urged supporters unhappy with the outcome to back Republicans who share their views in future elections. The Independent reported that Vance had expressed reservations about a wider U.S. role in the Middle East but publicly supported the campaign led by President Donald Trump. The outlet also reported that Vance avoided calling the conflict a war in September.
Commentators differed over whether Vance or Rubio remained better positioned for 2028. Former Republican U.S. Rep. Trey Gowdy singled Rubio out as the Republican side’s strongest performer on election night, The Independent reported. South Carolina U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace said she did not see a path to the presidency for either man, the outlet reported.
Vance had left open the possibility of not running before the midterms. At a CBS News town hall that aired Oct. 17, he said he might skip the race, as an earlier EconoTimes report noted.
