Kalshi market prices put a 71% probability on the Federal Reserve raising its interest rate target range to 4%-4.25% at the Dec. 9 meeting, according to the exchange's Nov. 2 quotes.
That outcome would lift the range by a quarter percentage point from its current level. The same band held the largest share for January, while March prices were more closely divided between two higher ranges.
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The live-feed quotes were taken at 16:01:46 UTC on Nov. 2, with contract volume for the December meeting at 2.6 million.
These are market prices, not a forecast or a survey. The probabilities for target ranges result from chaining each meeting's priced outcomes forward from the current range.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York put the current federal funds target range, the central bank's benchmark range for overnight lending between banks, at 3.75%-4% as of Oct. 30.
For December, the current 3.75%-4% range carried a 25.6% probability. The 3.5%-3.75% and 4.25%-4.5% bands each carried 1.4%, while the probability of a 3.25%-3.5% range was 0.5%.
The implied expected upper limit of the December target range was 4.18%. That measure refers to the top of the range, rather than its midpoint or the rate at which banks actually lend.
For the Jan. 27, 2027 meeting, the probability of a 4%-4.25% range was 56.3%. The current 3.75%-4% range followed at 20.1%, just ahead of 19.5% for 4.25%-4.5%.
January prices assigned 2.1% to 3.5%-3.75%, 1.4% to 4.5%-4.75% and 0.5% to 3.25%-3.5%. The implied expected upper limit was 4.24%, six basis points, or six hundredths of a percentage point, above December's level.
For March 17, 2027, the 4%-4.25% range carried 36.2%, followed by 35.2% for 4.25%-4.5%. The current range carried 13.5%, while 4.5%-4.75% accounted for 10.4%.
The remaining March probabilities were 3.1% for 3.5%-3.75%, 0.9% for 4.75%-5%, 0.6% for 3.25%-3.5% and 0.1% for 3%-3.25%. The implied expected upper limit was 4.34%.
Each meeting's market prices five possible decisions: cuts of half or a quarter percentage point, no change, or increases of a quarter or half percentage point.
Chaining those decisions across successive meetings produces the broader spread of target ranges shown for January and March. Those later distributions describe the resulting range at each meeting, rather than the size of a single decision.
