The Federal Reserve's target range carried a market-priced 77.4% probability of rising to 4%-4.25% at its Dec. 9 meeting, according to quotes from the US prediction exchange Kalshi.
That outcome would put the range 25 basis points, or a quarter percentage point, above its current level. The New York Fed put the current range at 3.75%-4% as of Nov. 5.
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The live-feed quotes were taken at 16:01:47 UTC on Nov. 6, with December contract volume at about 3.8 million.
These are market prices, not a forecast or a survey. The target range sets the bounds for the federal funds rate, the rate banks charge one another for overnight loans.
For December, the current 3.75%-4% range carried a 20.6% probability. A lower range of 3.5%-3.75% carried 1%, while 3.25%-3.5% and 4.25%-4.5% each carried 0.5%.
Kalshi's implied expected upper bound for December was 4.19%. That figure refers to the top of the target range, rather than its midpoint, and sits below the most likely band's 4.25% upper limit.
For the Jan. 27, 2027, meeting, the 4%-4.25% range again carried the largest probability, at 62.6%. The current 3.75%-4% range carried 17.8%, followed by 16% for 4.25%-4.5%.
The remaining January probabilities were 1.8% for 3.5%-3.75%, 1.3% for 4.5%-4.75% and 0.5% for 3.25%-3.5%. The implied expected upper bound was 4.24%.
The probability of the 4%-4.25% range was 14.8 percentage points lower for January than for December. January also assigned a larger probability to 4.25%-4.5%, at 16% compared with December's 0.5%.
For March 17, 2027, the distribution spread further across higher ranges. The 4%-4.25% band carried 42%, followed by 33.5% for 4.25%-4.5% and 12.8% for the current 3.75%-4% range.
The March probabilities also included 7.9% for 4.5%-4.75%, 2.4% for 3.5%-3.75%, 0.7% for 4.75%-5% and 0.5% for 3.25%-3.5%. The implied expected upper bound was 4.33%.
Each meeting's market prices five possible decisions: cuts of 50 or 25 basis points, no change, or increases of 25 or 50 basis points. The range probabilities combine those decisions across successive meetings.
Later meetings therefore reflect the possible paths from the current range through earlier decisions. Their bands describe where the target range could stand after those meetings, rather than the size of an individual decision.
The date when the current target range last changed was unavailable.