The market price for an unchanged Federal Reserve interest rate target range at the Oct. 28 meeting implied an 86.2% probability on Oct. 21, according to US prediction exchange Kalshi.
For Dec. 9, the largest probability shifted to a target range 25 basis points (a basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point) above the range labelled current, at 65.5%, the exchange said. The probability of finishing at the current range fell to 18.5%.
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These probabilities are market prices, not a forecast or a survey.
The live quotes were taken at 4:03:08 p.m. UTC on Oct. 21. Contract volume for the nearest meeting totalled 13.4 million, Kalshi said.
Absolute interest rate levels and implied expected rates cannot be reliably reported because the rate entries are inconsistent. The current target range is also inconsistent, and no usable date establishes when the Federal Reserve last changed it.
For Oct. 28, a range 25 basis points above the band labelled current carried a 12.3% probability, Kalshi said.
Ranges 25 and 50 basis points below that band each carried a 0.5% probability, the exchange said. A range 50 basis points above it also carried a 0.5% probability.
The October distribution therefore placed most of the probability on the band labelled current. The next largest share sat one quarter of a percentage point higher.
For Dec. 9, a range 50 basis points above the current-labelled band carried a 12.8% probability, Kalshi said. A range 25 basis points below it carried 1.8%.
A range 75 basis points above that band carried a 0.9% probability, the exchange said. A range 50 basis points below it carried 0.5%, completing the December distribution.
For Jan. 27, 2027, a range 25 basis points above the current-labelled band carried the largest probability, at 45.4%, Kalshi said. A range 50 basis points higher followed at 32.8%.
The current-labelled band carried 12.5%, while a range 75 basis points higher carried 6.4%, the exchange said. The remaining probabilities were 1.8% for 25 basis points lower, 0.5% for 100 higher and 0.4% for 50 lower.
Each meeting's market prices five possible decisions: cuts of 25 or 50 basis points, no change, or increases of 25 or 50 basis points. The later distributions combine those probabilities across successive meetings, Kalshi said.
