The Federal Reserve had a 91% market-priced probability of keeping its interest-rate target unchanged at its Oct. 28 meeting, based on Kalshi exchange prices taken on Oct. 23.
The most likely range for Dec. 9 was a quarter percentage point higher, at 4%-4.25%. That range carried a 65.6% probability in the exchange's prices.
Kalshi is a US prediction-market exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The live-feed quotes were taken at 16:00:07 UTC on Oct. 23, and contract volume for the nearest meeting was about 14.9 million.
These are market prices, not a forecast or a survey. The distributions show the target ranges priced for each meeting after combining the possible outcomes of successive decisions.
The current federal funds target range is 3.75%-4%, according to FRED data as of Oct. 23.
For Oct. 28, the unchanged range accounted for 91% of the distribution. A range of 4%-4.25% carried a 7.5% probability, making it the second most likely outcome.
The remaining October bands each carried a 0.5% probability: 3.25%-3.5%, 3.5%-3.75% and 4.25%-4.5%. The implied expected upper limit of the target range was 4.02%.
For Dec. 9, the current 3.75%-4% range carried a 21.9% probability, behind the 65.6% assigned to 4%-4.25%. The next higher band, 4.25%-4.5%, accounted for 9.4%.
The December distribution also assigned 1.8% to 3.5%-3.75%, 0.7% to 4.5%-4.75% and 0.6% to 3.25%-3.5%. Its implied expected upper limit was 4.21%, compared with 4.02% for October.
For Jan. 27, 2027, the largest probability was 48.9% for 4%-4.25%, followed by 26.2% for 4.25%-4.5%. The current range carried a 16.3% probability.
The January distribution assigned 5.2% to 4.5%-4.75% and 2.2% to 3.5%-3.75%. The 3.25%-3.5% and 4.75%-5% bands each carried 0.5%, with an implied expected upper limit of 4.29%.
Each meeting's market offers five outcomes: cuts of half or a quarter percentage point, no change, or increases of a quarter or half percentage point. The later distributions combine those possibilities from the current range forward.
A later meeting's band therefore represents the combined result of decisions up to that date. The implied expected rate refers to the upper limit of the target range, rather than its midpoint.
