Kazakhstan's central bank cut its base rate by 50 basis points after inflation slowed through September, the National Bank of Kazakhstan said in a statement published Nov. 2 by the Bank for International Settlements.
The reduction brought the rate to 15.75%, but another change before the end of 2026 was unlikely, the central bank said. The statement appeared under the title “Statement - base rate of the National Bank of Kazakhstan.”
Annual inflation fell to 9.3% in September from 9.8% in August, the central bank said. It attributed the slowdown to its monetary policy, a stronger tenge, steadier consumer activity and government measures to contain prices.
The central bank said inflation remained above its target and risks still leaned toward higher prices. It aims to bring inflation into a 6.5%-8.5% range in 2027 and close to 5% during 2028.
Food inflation fell to 8.5% from 9.5%, mainly because fruit and vegetable prices declined more sharply, the central bank said. Non-food inflation eased to 11%, while services inflation held at 8.9%.
Monthly inflation stayed at 0.6% in September, the central bank said. Food prices fell 0.1%, while non-food goods rose 1.1% and paid services increased 1%, leaving price changes uneven across categories.
Core inflation, which tracks more persistent price movements, remained at 0.7%, the central bank said. Inflation adjusted for seasonal patterns fell to 0.7% from 0.9%, but persistent price increases still required monetary restraint.
Households' inflation expectations fell to 11.8% in September from 12.1% in August, the central bank said. Professional market participants' October forecasts put inflation at 9.5% for 2026 and 8.3% for 2027.
The central bank said economic output grew 4.2% in January-September from a year earlier, despite an 8.3% drop in oil production. It estimated growth excluding mining at 5.4%, with construction, manufacturing, transport and trade supporting expansion.
Investment in fixed assets rose 7% after inflation over the same period, the central bank said. It said government-backed investment could push demand beyond the economy's capacity to expand, while Middle East tensions added external price risks.
The central bank said annual inflation could rise toward year-end because utility tariffs fell 14% in the fourth quarter of 2025. That decline lowered the comparison point for calculating subsequent annual price changes.
It said it would not raise rates in response to the direct effects of regulated price reforms. It would monitor whether those changes spread to other prices and respond if necessary.
Further decisions would depend on inflation, expectations and incoming economic data, the central bank said. It also planned to keep withdrawing excess money from the financial system through reserve requirements and other operations.
