Kearney projects worldwide supply-chain expenses will climb 2.7% in the first six months of 2027, with a higher case reaching 6.7%, giving businesses a wide range to plan against.
The consultancy's 2026 Q4 Supply Chain Navigator presents 2.7% as its central global estimate and 6.7% as an upside scenario. Its announcement does not state the comparison period behind the global projection or whether it accounts for inflation.
The listed country estimates put India highest at up to 8.3%, followed by China at 5.9%, the United States at 5%, Mexico at 4.5% and Germany at 3.1%. The announcement gives no separate time window or comparison baseline for these figures.
The release puts the increase in geopolitical risk at 64.5%, the largest movement among the fundamentals and sentiment indicators Kearney tracks. It does not define the measure or state the period used for comparison. Manufacturing growth, freight costs and technology-hardware prices are among the other pressures named, though Kearney does not quantify their individual contributions.
Kearney's summary also lists container rates up 6.8%, manufacturing growth at 5.5%, industrial-material import prices up 17.5%, U.S. import values up 4.6% and export values up 4.7%. The announcement does not identify comparison periods or data series for those figures.
The Navigator considers direct expenses such as labor, inventory and trade alongside broader readings on business activity, credit risk and geopolitical risk. Suketu Gandhi, a Kearney partner, global lead for the Supply Chain Institute and study co-author, said, “Planning against the full range, not a single number, is what matters this quarter.”
The report recommends protecting operating continuity and freeing working capital by reducing excess stock and resolving payment issues. It also advises companies to map volatility by business unit, product, supplier and customer.
