A Kentucky House toss-up offers an early test of FLIPR’s frozen midterm forecast, which its authors say can show whether candidates outperform pre-election expectations as votes are counted.
Eli McKown-Dawson and Nate Silver wrote in a Nov. 3 Silver Bulletin guide that FLIPR’s final projections rely on pre-election polling and will remain fixed as ballots are counted. They said readers can compare results with the model’s expectations. The guide’s top-line outlook sees Democrats in a strong position to win both chambers, while noting that the Senate remains less certain than the House.
Trump carried Kentucky’s 6th District by 15 points in 2024, while FLIPR projects a 0.1 percentage-point Democratic edge there. The seat is open as Andy Barr seeks a Senate seat. FLIPR rates the contest a toss-up and gives it the narrowest projected House margin in its Deluxe forecast. The authors said Kentucky’s count usually moves quickly, giving the race potential to offer an early indication of the model’s performance.
FLIPR’s Kentucky Senate projection also points strongly to Republicans in the race for the seat Mitch McConnell is leaving. That is the only statewide contest the guide includes among the Indiana and Kentucky results.
Most Florida polling places are scheduled to close at 7 p.m. ET (00:00 UTC Nov. 4), though the Panhandle is on Central Time. Georgia results are also expected to start arriving then. The guide says Georgia must report early and mail votes by 8 p.m. ET (01:00 UTC Nov. 4), with most Election Day ballots expected soon afterward.
The authors include South Carolina as a low-probability Democratic path to a Senate seat once held by Lindsey Graham. They said a win would signal an unusually strong Democratic showing. In Vermont, polls leave incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott with ground to make up, according to the guide. The authors expect counts in both states to be close to complete around midnight ET (05:00 UTC Nov. 4).
