Economist Arnold Kling’s AI-assisted update estimates U.S. federal land is worth more than federal oil and gas rights, though its proxy-based figures are not official appraisals.
Kling’s post values the rights at $625 billion in 2026 dollars, 75% below the 1981 estimate after adjusting for inflation. A 1984 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) paper valued federal oil and gas rights at $819.3 billion and federal land at $175.1 billion in 1981 dollars. Kling converts the oil and gas figure to $2.544 trillion in 2026 dollars. Applying a 3% real discount rate to future receipts produces an alternative estimate of $321 billion.
For land, Kling calculates $1.082 trillion by extending an earlier value series and $1.555 trillion with a separate benchmark method. These are distinct estimates, not the endpoints of a statistical range. His calculations draw on published summaries and assumptions, including state pasture values as a proxy for rural federal land. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) put average U.S. pasture value at $2,000 per acre in 2026. Kling cautions that some public acreage is treated as grazing land in the model, although much federal land could not readily be sold.
The 1984 paper’s authors expected mineral prices to rise alongside interest rates, so they did not discount future royalties separately. Kling argues later price history did not support that assumption.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s fiscal 2025 report gives a narrower measure: the present value of future royalties from proved federal oil and gas reserves was $75.3 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025, including $31.5 billion offshore and $43.8 billion onshore. Kling also includes undiscovered resources and future lease bonuses, so the estimates cover different scopes and are not directly comparable.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates technically recoverable onshore resources. Those figures do not establish that the volumes are economically recoverable or qualify as reserves; the AI-assisted update applies assumed economic shares. Separately, the FY2025 Financial Report of the U.S. Government recorded $6.1 trillion in assets and $47.8 trillion in liabilities as of Sept. 30, 2025. It lists natural resources and stewardship assets among government resources outside the balance sheet.
