Labour enters Chancellor John Healey’s first UK budget with an eight-point polling lead as Prime Minister Andy Burnham said a general election would not be called “any time soon,” tempering speculation about a snap vote.
An Ipsos online survey of 1,109 British adults, conducted Oct. 15-22, put Labour at 32%, the Conservatives at 24% and Reform UK at 20%. The Liberal Democrats received 9% and the Greens 8%. Labour’s share rose five points from September, while the Conservatives gained three and Reform UK fell three. Ipsos said this was its widest Labour lead since June 2025 and the first time since then that the Conservatives had placed second in its polling.
Ipsos said that, using records from recent general elections, its estimates would come within four percentage points of a party’s actual support in nine of 10 cases and within two points about two-thirds of the time. Keiran Pedley, Ipsos’ director of politics in the UK, cautioned: “we should be mindful against overreacting to one poll.”
In an Oct. 26 interview with ITV, Burnham said a general election would not be called “any time soon.” He also said he was not proposing a change to the UK’s relationship with the European Union during the current Parliament. At Labour’s 2026 conference, Burnham said planning would begin for a National Care Service intended for introduction in the next Parliament.
The National’s Oct. 27 opinion column argued that a sustained polling lead could give Burnham an opportunity to seek a mandate for longer-term proposals, including closer ties with the European Union. The columnist forecast that such a shift could cost Labour support in pro-Brexit constituencies and benefit Reform UK. The columnist also argued that a focus on northern priorities or tax changes could weaken Labour’s appeal in southern England. These are the column’s political assessments, not announced government plans.
The column drew a comparison with former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, whom it said regretted not calling an early election when Labour was doing well in the polls. The analogy reflects the columnist’s argument; the materials do not establish that Burnham intends to call a vote.
Cabinet Office guidance says a prime minister may request Parliament’s dissolution at any time, subject to a maximum parliamentary term of five years from its first meeting. HM Treasury has scheduled Healey’s budget for Wednesday, Oct. 28. Healey said it would follow fiscal discipline and meet the government’s fiscal rules.
