In 2015, Mexico's exports declined 4.1%, whereas imports dropped 1.2%, resulting in a trade deficit of USD14.5bn, as compared with 2014's deficit of USD2.8bn. Lower oil exports mostly led to the decline in trade balance. Meanwhile, growth in the manufacturing export should keep the current account deficit in check. However, in the near term, lower oil exports might continue to exert downward pressure. Mexico's public finances and external account have been impacted by declining oil prices.
Hence, the current account balance has declined by between 0.5% and 0.8% of GDP on a structural basis. Significant rebound in the manufacturing exports or entry into new markets will be required to see current account return to its earlier size. However, overall real exports carry on expanding at a stronger rate helped by continued expansion of the US, its main trading partner. Mexico's trade numbers can rebound in 2016 if the US economy continues to expand strongly and if oil prices rise from current levels.
