MTN Nigeria’s nine-month 2026 results presentation valued a dividend-reinvested N1 million investment made at its 2021 offer price at $4,545 through September 2026, above bond and bill comparisons despite naira depreciation and inflation.
The presentation calculated a 9.9% annualized real U.S. dollar return for that scenario. At the same starting value, it put Nigerian sovereign Eurobonds at $3,433 and naira-denominated Treasury bills at $1,438 through September 2026. Their real returns were 3.6% and negative 13.6%, respectively.
The calculation counted dividends used to purchase additional shares, increasing the holding over time. The result therefore depended on the original offer price and the reinvestment assumption. The presentation said inflation and naira depreciation had eroded the real value of naira-denominated investments.
MTN Nigeria Chief Financial Officer Modupe Kadri linked the analysis to investor questions raised at the company’s roadshow and capital markets day in South Africa. Speaking on the third-quarter earnings call, she described the reinvestment scenario as positive in inflation-adjusted U.S. dollar terms, even with a weaker naira.
MTN Group’s offer-results notice reported a base offer of 575 million existing MTN Nigeria shares, followed by 86.25 million additional shares allocated through a greenshoe option. Total allocation reached 661.25 million shares. More than 126,000 investors subscribed for 802 million shares, equal to 1.39 times the base offer.
Kehinde Jones, head of research at Anchoria, told BusinessDay that MTN’s result should not be treated as a typical expectation for other stocks. He said other dividend-paying companies on the Nigerian Exchange might achieve similar outcomes, depending on earnings growth, sustainable dividends and their ability to protect shareholder value from currency depreciation.
The comparison used the 2021 offer price and assumed dividends were reinvested. It offers no guarantee of returns for investors buying at current prices.
