Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) said doubts over the artificial intelligence (AI) trade could reach currency markets as its indicators point to slower Asian export growth in 2027, though it still sees a healthy pace.
In an Oct. 21, 2026, note, MUFG senior currency analyst Michael Wan said the bank’s indicators were beginning to signal slower export growth, but did not give a numerical forecast. He described the implied 2027 pace as healthy, though below recent years.
South Korea’s near-term export figures remained strong. The Korea Customs Service reported preliminary exports of $61.612 billion for Oct. 1-20, 2026, up 105.4% from a year earlier. That total was not adjusted for workdays: the period had 13, compared with 10.5 in the same period a year earlier.
On a daily average basis, exports rose 65.9% to $4.74 billion from $2.86 billion. Semiconductor exports reached $27.5 billion, a record for the first 20 days of October.
For relative performance across Asia, Wan said MUFG continued to prefer the Korean won (KRW), Taiwan dollar (TWD) and Chinese yuan (CNY). He said domestic conditions could weigh on the Indian rupee (INR) and Indonesian rupiah (IDR), and noted the bank had become less confident in its relative currency view. Wan also said the Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF) could gain appeal when investors turn risk-averse.
Wan also listed possible Democratic control of both chambers of Congress in 2027 as a market risk. He said that scenario could lead to more AI regulation and sharpen disagreements over fiscal policy.
