On Oct. 17, market pricing assigned a 14.5% probability to Houthi forces moving into Aden by Dec. 1, 2026, with advances near Al-Labanat remaining localized.
The probability measures the Aden scenario; it does not describe territorial control in Al-Jawf. Yemeni government forces gained ground near Al-Labanat camp, but those gains have not amounted to a decisive shift in control.
Houthi forces continue to hold significant territory across western Al-Jawf and northern Yemen. A Saudi-led coalition backs Yemeni government forces in a broader campaign against the Iran-aligned Houthis. Al-Jawf is among the governorates targeted in that campaign.
