Before October's U.S. jobs report, markets had priced a December Federal Reserve increase as more likely than no change, though the prospect of a pause remained a meaningful possibility.
On Nov. 6, market pricing put the implied probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the December meeting at 72.8%; the chance of unchanged rates stood at 27.2%. A 25-basis-point move equals a quarter of a percentage point.
The strongest January outcome was a cumulative 25-basis-point increase, at 63.4%. The implied chances were 21.6% for no change and 15.1% for a cumulative 50-basis-point increase.
After the October jobs report, CME FedWatch pricing put the chance of a December increase at 81%, according to EconoTimes' earlier coverage of gold and the employment data. That was 8.2 percentage points above the pre-report reading.
These probabilities describe market expectations, not a Federal Reserve decision or commitment.
