Marshall Islands President Hilda C. Heine urged COP31 leaders to limit warming overshoot, as the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) projected a 2.8°C rise this century under current policies.
The Guardian reported Heine saying, “Our response to the threat of overshoot must be overwhelming, or the world we know is over.” Health Policy Watch reported that she warned overshoot could erode shorelines and flood towns, schools and hospitals.
UNEP’s 2026 Emissions Gap Report puts warming at 2.6°C if countries meet their existing climate pledges and maintain similar efforts. In the report’s most optimistic scenario, which assumes additional net-zero targets are met, warming reaches 2.1°C.
The Marshall Islands’ NDC 3.0, filed with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), says the country emits less than 0.0005% of global greenhouse gases. The filing links the safety of atoll communities to collective international action and says climate-finance shortfalls have constrained follow-through on earlier plans.
The Paris Agreement calls for holding long-term warming well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. The 1.5°C goal refers to long-term warming, not a single year’s temperature. UNEP says temporary overshoot is now expected, but faster emissions cuts can still limit its scale and duration. Its lowest-overshoot pathway requires emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025.
SBS News quoted Heine criticizing fossil-fuel development: “Every new oil well drilled, every new piece of coal extracted is a threat to my country's future.” The UNFCCC lists the COP31 Leaders’ Summit for Nov. 11-12 in Antalya, Türkiye, and the conference’s final day as Nov. 20.
